Middle Rio Grande Water Supply Study, New Mexico
  
This study integrated vast quantities of existing data, models and investigations conducted over the past 100 years over a 150-mile reach of the Rio Grande to obtain a probabilistic description of the conjunctive-use groundwater and surface-water supply. Using historic data, a water budget was developed for the linked groundwater/surface-water system. To characterize the water budget elements and their variability, descriptive statistics and probability density functions were developed for each water budget inflow and outflow term using data recorded over a 50-year period. Groundwater inflow/outflow to the river system was characterized through MODFLOW simulation. Monte Carlo simulation of the river system water budget was conducted to characterize the probabilistic nature of the overall water supply and likelihood of meeting Rio Grande Compact obligations under several potential future development conditions.

The probabilistic water supply, based on surface-water and groundwater supplies, was quantified as probability density functions under various scenarios. The source data, methodologies and results were presented in a final report, through oral presentation at several public meetings, and in an interactive website. The results are being used by regional planning groups as they develop regional water plans.